Chance

A probability-controlled trigger filter that makes one independent yes-or-no decision for every incoming event.

What it does #

Each input trigger asks Chance to perform a weighted random test. A successful test produces a short trigger at the output; a failed test produces nothing. The probability setting therefore thins an event stream without changing the timing of events that survive.

Controls and ports #

Control	Label	Official description
trigger_in	Trigger In	Trigger causes a possible event at output
out	Out	Short trigger signals

Practical uses #

• Place it in a clock or gate path to remove events probabilistically while preserving the original rhythmic grid.
• Use several Chance modules to decide which generative subpatterns, fills, or voices become active.
• Follow the output with Sample/Hold, a latch, or other memory when one random decision should remain active for a bar or section.

Things to know #

• Chance evaluates incoming trigger events; it does not continuously generate random gates on its own.
• A successful result is a short trigger, not a gate that remains high until the next decision.
• Changing the rate of incoming triggers changes how often decisions occur, not the probability assigned to each decision.
• This Grid signal module is different from Bitwig's Note Chance processor, even though both perform probability tests.

Technical details #

No Nitro implementation has been confirmed for this visible module. The behavior is described conservatively from module metadata and editorial research.

The behavioral model is a Bernoulli trial on every qualifying trigger: draw a uniform random value r, compare it with probability p, and emit a short pulse when the test succeeds. No dedicated Grid Chance Nitro body has been identified, so the exact comparison boundary, trigger detector, pulse duration, and seeding policy are intentionally not claimed. The automatic note/chance match is rejected because its ports carry NoteEvent objects rather than Grid signals.

Open questions #

• Measure exact behavior at 0, 50, and 100 percent, including the threshold comparator and endpoint guarantees.
• Measure trigger-edge detection, response to a held-high input, output pulse length, and closely spaced retriggers.
• Test seed persistence, offline-render repeatability, polyphonic voice behavior, and stereo lane independence.

Version and sources #

Checked against Bitwig Studio 6.0.6. This page combines Bitwig's module metadata, the existing Grid course and guides, and Nitro analysis where the mapping is strong enough to support a technical statement.

Related material #

• Grid Modules course reference
• Generative Pattern Combining in the Bitwig Studio Grid

Return to Bitwig Grid Modules or the Grid Modules course lesson.